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Credit Score Migration White Paper

A key question for lenders using credit scores is: How will future events impact a consumer’s credit score? An obvious concern is that the consumer was approved for credit given their score exceeded the lender cut-off at the time of evaluation, but may fall below the cut-off soon after the evaluation time.  Lenders are also interested in the number of consumers who fail to obtain credit because their scores fall below a lender’s minimum, but then improve their credit scores to a level greater than the lender’s minimum either 3 or 12 months later.

This study analyzes consumer score migration. Two million consumers were randomly selected from the Experian Credit Bureau database.  Their credit scores were determined every quarter during a two-year period between 2011 and 2013. Score changes were evaluated to determine the following insights:

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