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Default Risk Index

powered by TransUnion

The Default Risk Index presents the most accurate way to use credit scores to evaluate and compare pools of loans. This free, interactive data series is published quarterly to the VantageScore website using data from TransUnion. Rather than use credit scores to directly gauge risk profile—a practice that is common but flawed—the DRI is derived using the probability of default tables that lie beneath each credit score. In a single number, the Default Risk Index summarizes the risk profile of new originations in a way that is mathematically accurate and consistent over time.

How has the risk profile of new originations changed over time?

The interactive chart below illustrates the risk profile of consumer loans originated each quarter, with higher values representing riskier loans.

Hover over to view exact values per industry. Click on the key beneath the graph to suppress or display each industry.

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Indexed to Q3-2013

The Default Risk Index began five years ago with a starting value of 100 in each lending category. In the third quarter of 2018, the student category reached its lowest value ever (“lower” indicating less risk) while the credit card category showed its second highest yet (the highest was in the second quarter, same year). The auto category is closest to where it started, at a DRI of 94, while the mortgage DRI of 88 reflects relative tightening (the latest value is in the bottom, or lowest risk, quartile of DRI values observed so far).   

How much risk did lenders take last quarter?

The dashboard below summarizes the total volume, risk profile, and Default Risk Index value for consumer loans originated last quarter.

Total Originations [i] Probability of Default (weighted average) [i] Default Risk Index [i] DRI vs. Last Quarter DRI vs. Same Quarter Last Year
Mortgage
Bankcard
Auto
Student

Despite the surge in volumes, student loan originations looked less risky both relative to the previous quarter (-18%) and to the third quarter in the prior year (-7%). This is the lowest student loan DRI observed since the beginning of the series.  

How have total lending volumes changed over time?

The interactive chart below illustrates the total volume of consumer loans originated each quarter. For bankcard loans, the values represent total credit limits originated during the quarter.

Hover over to view exact values per industry. Click on the key beneath the graph to suppress or display each industry, or click on any colored bar in the graph to view that industry by itself.

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Billions of dollars

Mortgage originations slowed 7% relative to last year, while auto and credit card originations showed little change. Student loan originations more than doubled in the third quarter, consistent with seasonal expectations.

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